Oscar Reaction and ranting (mostly ranting)

This is a a difficult argument to phrase, but I'll give it a shot. A good film won best picture tonight. There are times when that hasn't happened, and I suppose we should be grateful for that. But its that old Oscar problem of rewarding the workmanlike over the flamboyant, the familiar over the revolutionary. It never really seems to go away, and it means that when you look back at their choices, and perhaps more importantly what they didn't choose. They always seem out of touch. Oscar seems to bounce between the stubborn and apologetic and can occasionally come across Larry David-esque in its attempts to rectify situations. Annoyed we didn't nominate The Dark Knight, here's 15 nomination for Avatar! you're happy again right? That film is popular! But the problem was it wasn't ignoring the popular movie, but one of the best ones, that just happened to make 550 million or so. Misinterpreting people's frustrations with Oscar seems to be the worst thing about them, because each year becomes about putting right mistakes of the year before and so forth.

But the most persistent mistake I think is the never-ending embrace of the Biopic. I've made no secret that I find the biopic to be the most mundane and ultimately pointless of film genres. Almost all of them are good, but none of them, or very, very few of them, are extra-ordinary. It takes much less work to make them good and they seem to get much more praise for it, seemingly because they're important, unlike pesky original stories. And for Oscar to reward them with such consistency is to a dis-service to film-making. What use is ambition or the ability to tell a story when you can be a filmed version of a Wikipedia page. It means that era-defining films, particularly the daring ones, are always ignored, something we all just accept at this point. And The King's Speech just seems to me to be yet another one of these films. Proficient, well acted and entirely forgettable. The Social Network is of course also a biopic, but it feels so much less like one out of the factory, one that covers things in the same old way with the same emotional arcs and makes an effort to be a film rather then just a piece of visualized information. Its that film, Inception, Winter's Bone and Toy Story 3 that will be revered long after The King's Speech is a footnote on the Oscar IMDB page. That's fine. You can say the Oscars don't matter and that no-one cares and move on with your day right?

Well no, because they have a prestige, a value that all other award shows lust after. They are almost as old as cinema itself, and so they have a legitimacy you can't take away with all your words of scorn and derision. Films can be forgotten or remembered on the basis of this shit. And I know back when I was watching films for the first time, I used the Oscars as a gage of what to see, particularly with older films. So it matters when they make the wrong call and I think this is one of the more egregious examples of that in a while. I was pretty open minded about the winner, I think anything but The Kids are all right, The Fighter or The King's Speech I would have been with. But fuck, yet again we're told the pinnacle of film-making is chronicling figures from history, and if Oscar could just once make it through three years without re-enforcing that message, I'd be a much happier man.

Elsewhere everything went pretty much as expected, the only surprise really being Fincher losing best director to Tom Hooper. I think this is possibly a much greater outrage then the best picture thing, but I'm too burned out on resentment to say anything else at this point.

Oscar Predictions

Given that the golden globe nominations are tomorrow, it seems fairest to do this without any frame of reference. I'll slam another one up closer to the time, when I can use previous nominations as a crutch. How much more fun that will be.

BEST PICTURE:

The Social Network - WINNER

True Grit

Toy Story 3

Inception

Black Swan

The King's Speech

Winter's Bone

127 Hours

The Fighter

The Kids Are Alright

BEST ACTOR:

Colin Firth, The King's Speech- WINNER

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network -

James Franco, 127 Hours

Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Robert Duvall, Get Low

BEST ACTRESS:

Natalie Portman, Black Swan - WINNER

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

Annette Bening, The Kids Are Alright

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Christian Bale, The Fighter - WINNER

Mark Ruffalo, Th Kids Are Alright

Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Jeremy Renner, The Town

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Melissa Leo, The Fighter

Hailee Stanfield, True Grit

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech - WINNER

Mila Kunis, Black Swan

BEST DIRECTOR:

Christopher Nolan, Inception

David Fincher, The Social Network - WINNER

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan

Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:

Inception - WINNER

Black Swan

The Kids Are Alright

Another Year

The King's Speech

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:

The Social Network - WINNER

True Grit

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

Toy Story 3

The Oscars: Where James Cameron Got Beat And This Made Me Happy

James Cameron has had enough victories, including Titanic ridiculously beating the masterpiece that was LA Confidential back in 1997, so even those who like his movies can appreciate this little humbling. Did you see his face when the victorious Avatar techies thanked him profusely? Fucking entitlement defined. So to see Oscar pick the right movie certainly was a pleasing and redeeming sight to see. The whole thing was otherwise by the book, and everyone who was expected to win won, with the mini surprise of best adapted screenplay going to Precious. And behalf of everyone who had to suffer through all the crushing hype Avatar has received and had justly punctured yesterday... This day is our validation (until someone reminds us of Avatar's 1.5 billion worldwide, anyway).

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (yeah)

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow ( The first female best director winner.)

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges ( The dude abides)

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock ( Kind of silly, but her speech was charming enough to make me OK with it.)

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz (Of course)

Best Supporting actress: Mo'Nique ( people expect me to have a problem with this but I really don't. Mo'Nique was awesome)

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal

Best Adapted Screenplay: Geoffrey Fletcher

Last Minute Oscar Predictions

Because I've said all I can say on the Oscars, I'll just throw out the predictions and that'll be that.

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock

Best Supporting Actor: Christophe Waltz

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up In The Air

Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker

The Oscar Nominations

I've decided that Oscar's inevitable rewarding of Avatar is compatible for comparison with Barack Obama getting a Nobel Peace Prize, in which an awards body fading in relevance makes one last desperate grab for popularity by turning shamelessly populist. Did Obama really deserve the nobel peace prize. Hell no, but it made people talk about it again. So Avatar's presence guarantees Oscar more interest but at the cost of its integral soul. Why couldn't they do this last year with the Dark Knight damn it! Liberal pinkos who actually care about quality and stuff would have been fine with that. But on the bright side theyve had enough dignity not to nominate the shockingly bad Avatar credits song. Anyway those in contention for the weakest Oscar race in some time are:

Best Picture
“Avatar”
“The Blind Side”
“District 9”
“An Education”
“The Hurt Locker”
“Inglourious Basterds”
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
“A Serious Man”
“Up”
“Up in the Air”

Granted, I've not seen The Blind Side yet, but this does sound like bullshit. District 9 makes me happy, as does A Serious Man.

How Good Am I?
1st set of predictions: 6/10 (passable)
2nd set of predictions: 9/10 (got blind sided by The Blind Side. Sorry)

Best Director
“Avatar” James Cameron
“The Hurt Locker” Kathryn Bigelow
“Inglourious Basterds” Quentin Tarantino
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Lee Daniels
“Up in the Air” Jason Reitman

Pretty much as expected really, no real suprises here. It should be Bigelow, but it will be Cameron

How Good Am I?
1st set of predictions ( DEC 1) : 2/5 (yikes)
2nd set of predictions (JAN 22): 4/5 (Good recovery)

Actress
Sandra Bullock in “The Blind Side”
Helen Mirren in “The Last Station”
Carey Mulligan in “An Education”
Gabourey Sidibe in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”
Meryl Streep in “Julie & Julia”

I think Sandra Bullock is fast becoming the favorite here, which by its very nature is hilarious.

How Good Am I?

1st set of predictions (DEC 1): 4/5 (Zing motherfucker)
2nd set of predictions (JAN 22): 5/5 ( You know it)

Actor
Jeff Bridges in “Crazy Heart”
George Clooney in “Up in the Air”
Colin Firth in “A Single Man”
Morgan Freeman in “Invictus”
Jeremy Renner in “The Hurt Locker”

Bridges or Firth are the favorites. My money's on Bridges, with Firth to take the Bafta. Seeing a deserving Renner here is pretty satisfying, even if he has absolutely no chance of winning.

How Good Am I:
DEC 1 predictions: 4/5 ( Clearly I'm an intimidating judge of acting prowess)
JAN 22 predictions: 5/5 ( Messing it up!)

Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz in “Nine”
Vera Farmiga in “Up in the Air”
Maggie Gyllenhaal in “Crazy Heart”
Anna Kendrick in “Up in the Air”
Mo’Nique in “Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire”

Gyllenhaal is a curveball, as is the absence of Oscar mainstay Julianne Moore, but otherwise business as predicted.

How Good am I?

DEC 1 Predictions: 1/5 ( crash and burn)
JAN 22 Predictions: 4/5 (Respectable save)

Supporting Actor
Matt Damon in “Invictus”
Woody Harrelson in “The Messenger”
Christopher Plummer in “The Last Station”
Stanley Tucci in “The Lovely Bones”
Christoph Waltz in “Inglourious Basterds”

Waltz. Surely. Woody Harrelson gets a surrogate nomination where they pretend its for The Messenger but its very for Zombieland, what Damon is doing here is beyond me.

How Good Am I?

DEC 1 Predictions: 4/5 (That' how I do.)
JAN 22 Predictions: 4/5 (Consistent Motherfucker)


Adapted Screenplay
“District 9” Written by Neill Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell
“An Education” Screenplay by Nick Hornby
“In the Loop” Screenplay by Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche
“Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire” Screenplay by Geoffrey Fletcher
“Up in the Air” Screenplay by Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner

District 9! For writing. Yay. But the big money is on Reitman, as strictly speaking he is still without on Oscar and this a suitably apolgetic way to give him one.

How good am I?

DEC 1 Predictions: N/A
JAN 22 Predictions: 4/5

Original Screenplay
“The Hurt Locker” Written by Mark Boal
“Inglourious Basterds” Written by Quentin Tarantino
“The Messenger” Written by Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
“A Serious Man” Written by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
“Up” Screenplay by Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Story by Pete Docter, Bob Peterson, Tom McCarthy

I'd say either Mark Boal or Tarantino. But the thing is if they don't give this to The Hurt Locker, the film could very well walk away with nothing and that would be an embarrassment. So while in a strictly unpolitical world this would go to Tarantino, I'm going for Boal.

How good am I?

DEC 1 predictions: N/A
JAN 22 Predictions: 4/5

Animated Feature
“Coraline” Henry Selick
“Fantastic Mr. Fox” Wes Anderson
“The Princess and the Frog” John Musker and Ron Clements
“The Secret of Kells” Tomm Moore
“Up” Pete Docter

Up. End of.

Foreign Film
“Ajami” Israel
“El Secreto de Sus Ojos” Argentina
“The Milk of Sorrow” Peru
“Un Prophète” France
“The White Ribbon” Germany

A Prophet is here! Awesome and deserving. I think Haneke being victorious is more likely but fingers crossed.

Omissions:

Where The Wild Things Are. Absolutely Jackshit. Expected but still immensely irritating.

Michael Stuhlbarg, A serious Man. One of the more interesting performances this year not here. C'est la vie.

Sharlto Copley, District 9. Throwing it out there.

Anthony Mackie, The Hurt The Locker. I like how this great, subtle performance gets entirely ignored, whilst Damon's here for being famous as far as I can tell.

The Road. Zilch and nothing giving.

Neill Blomkamp, seeing District 9 in Best Picture ( Which I predicted, because I'm awesome) was great, but he really deserves to be here as well.

Oscar Predictions Mark 2#: Six Weeks Later

Since my flippant first predictions, certain things have come to pass. Avatar has gone from a possible winner to the film to beat, The Lovely Bones has faded, and The Hurt Locker has gained quite a bit of momentum, going from possible nomination to the film everyone wants to win (but probably won't), so lets see how things are figuring about now.

BEST PICTURE:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
An Education
Up In The Air
Up
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
District 9
A Serious Man

Ten nominations makes predicting less skillful, and more listing the obvious. I'm taking a chance on District 9 and that the bad word Nine has got of late will put it out of competition. It may get in there anyway.

BEST DIRECTOR:
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Retiman, Up In The Air
Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious
Neill Blomkamp, District 9

Blomkamp is a gamble, but I'm thinking the BAFTA nomination brings him a bit more into the game. Otherwise the usual suspects.

BEST ACTOR:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Bridges' Oscar to lose really, and Renner still isn't a certainty although he really should be. Could get edged out by Day-Lewis, on name more then what he actually did this year.

BEST ACTRESS:
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Helen Mirren, The Last Station

I hope Streep doesn't win, but then again I hope Bullock doesn't win either. I guess I'm rooting for Mulligan. But of these she is least likely Mirren aside.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Matt Damon, Invictus
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

Waltz. All the way here. He stands out noticeably, and is a slightly larger then life villain, a requisite for this category of late. Mackie perhaps is a Statement of hope maybe, but I refuse to be cynical.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
M'onique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Penelope Cruz, Nine

M'onique has the buzz, but Up in the air owns 40% of the category. So Farmiga or Kendrick could pull a shock.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
500 Days of Summer
A Serious Man
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Up

I'm Thinking Tarantino, but this could be the way Oscar rewards The Hurt Locker, given that it clearly wants to give Avatar all the serious shit.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
District 9
Up In The Air
An Education
Precious
Crazy Heart

Up In The Air. End of. Way to give Reitman an Oscar without giving him an Oscar.


There's been years where every Oscar nomination is awesome and years where they are all cack. This is a year toward the back-end of the spectrum, or maybe Avatar is blinding my objectivity. Could be.

Obscenely Early Oscar Predictions

Given that the number of potential best picture nominees has gone up from five to ten. Almost every conceivable film that could get nominated will get nominated. So without due consideration here's what I expect the main categories to look like. PS. If Avatar is any way good, it has a shot at the tenth spot.

Best Picture:
Nine
Up
Up in The Air
A Serious Man
The Lovely Bones
The Hurt Locker
Precious
An Education
Coraline
Invictus

Best Director:
Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Rob Marshall, Nine
Peter Jackson, The Lovely Bones
Jason Reitman, Up in the air
Clint Eastwood, Invictus

Best Actor:
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
George Clooney, Up in the air
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

Best Actress:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Audrey Tautou, Coco Before Chanel

Best Supporting Actor:
Christophe Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Matt Damon, Invictus

Best Supporting Actress:
Judi Dench, Nine
Marion Cotillard, Nine
Anna Kendrick, Up in The Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones

Not all what I hope mind, but what I think.