I still stand by my earlier predictions, but it will be a closer call than first expected. Its most definately building up steam in the Best Picture category, with several muted competators falling by the wayside, such as the Changeling which is been met with middling reviews and thus seems pretty much out of contention. Similarly it seems that TDK has K.O'd fellow summer blockbuster WALL-E, which has had Oscar buzz for well over a year now. It was going to finally break Pixar into the best picture category, but they hadn't counted on The Bat and seeing as Hell will freeze over before they nominate two summer movies, it seems to be goodbye to the robots. The inevitable buzz for Heath Ledger is keeping TDK in everyone's mind, and maybe now a Best picture nom is quite so unattainable. Still would bet against it though.
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