Oscar Predictions Mark 2#: Six Weeks Later

Since my flippant first predictions, certain things have come to pass. Avatar has gone from a possible winner to the film to beat, The Lovely Bones has faded, and The Hurt Locker has gained quite a bit of momentum, going from possible nomination to the film everyone wants to win (but probably won't), so lets see how things are figuring about now.

BEST PICTURE:
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Invictus
An Education
Up In The Air
Up
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
District 9
A Serious Man

Ten nominations makes predicting less skillful, and more listing the obvious. I'm taking a chance on District 9 and that the bad word Nine has got of late will put it out of competition. It may get in there anyway.

BEST DIRECTOR:
James Cameron, Avatar
Jason Retiman, Up In The Air
Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Lee Daniels, Precious
Neill Blomkamp, District 9

Blomkamp is a gamble, but I'm thinking the BAFTA nomination brings him a bit more into the game. Otherwise the usual suspects.

BEST ACTOR:
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Colin Firth, A Single Man
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Bridges' Oscar to lose really, and Renner still isn't a certainty although he really should be. Could get edged out by Day-Lewis, on name more then what he actually did this year.

BEST ACTRESS:
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabby Sidibe, Precious
Helen Mirren, The Last Station

I hope Streep doesn't win, but then again I hope Bullock doesn't win either. I guess I'm rooting for Mulligan. But of these she is least likely Mirren aside.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Matt Damon, Invictus
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker

Waltz. All the way here. He stands out noticeably, and is a slightly larger then life villain, a requisite for this category of late. Mackie perhaps is a Statement of hope maybe, but I refuse to be cynical.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
M'onique, Precious
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Penelope Cruz, Nine

M'onique has the buzz, but Up in the air owns 40% of the category. So Farmiga or Kendrick could pull a shock.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
500 Days of Summer
A Serious Man
Inglourious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
Up

I'm Thinking Tarantino, but this could be the way Oscar rewards The Hurt Locker, given that it clearly wants to give Avatar all the serious shit.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
District 9
Up In The Air
An Education
Precious
Crazy Heart

Up In The Air. End of. Way to give Reitman an Oscar without giving him an Oscar.


There's been years where every Oscar nomination is awesome and years where they are all cack. This is a year toward the back-end of the spectrum, or maybe Avatar is blinding my objectivity. Could be.